Here is the cost of NCD care in Lagos

Two studies from our Research & Learning team have now answered both questions, using real patient records and real prices from Lagos State health facilities.

The findings are consistent across both conditions and point to the same underlying problem.

Diabetes: a $357 gap per patient

The diabetes study, published in BMJ Global Health, followed 642 patients with type 2 diabetes across 84 health facilities over a full year. Patients received care worth $96 on average. A complete care journey, based on WHO, Lagos State and Nigerian diabetes guidelines, costs $453. The gap is $357 per patient, or $206 million across Lagos State annually.

Medications account for 73% of the total cost of care, and for most of that gap. The study also found that regular consultations and health insurance were both independently linked to better blood sugar control, yet only 29% of patients had any coverage. With optimal care, strokes could be reduced by 2% and heart attacks by 4% over seven years.

Hypertension: 81% of recommended care is missing

The hypertension study tracked 1,249 patients across 74 facilities. 82% had uncontrolled blood pressure at their first recorded visit. A complete care journey costs $148 per patient per year, yet 81% of that care was never delivered.

When patients did receive complete consultations and medications, the risk reduction was enough to prevent between 2,900 and 6,900 cardiovascular events across Lagos State every year.

The same structural problem

Across both diseases, medications are where the money goes and where the gap is largest. Both studies draw on the same base dataset of patient records from public and private, primary and secondary facilities across Lagos State, collected in 2019 with pricing data from 2023.

Both point to the same solutions: pooled and bulk drug procurement, expanded use of generics, investment in local pharmaceutical manufacturing, broader insurance coverage, and more efficient care delivery through group-based and digital models.

Read the two papers below

• Diabtes study in BMJ Global Health
• Hypertension study in Nature